25
June
2023
|
17:00 PM
America/Chicago

AAA: Record-Breaking Travel Volumes Expected July 4th Weekend

Traveling by car and air over the holiday projected to be highest on record

Residents of Minnesota and Iowa will travel in record numbers for Independence Day. AAA forecasts more than 3.7 million travelers from the West North Central Region (WNC) [IA,KS,MN,MO,ND,SD] will take at least one trip of 50 miles or more, between Friday, June 30 and Tuesday, July 4. That's 140,000 more holiday travelers than the previous record high, set in 2019 and 2022.

Nationally, travel figures are also expected to set new records. An estimated 50.7 million Americans are forecast to travel for the holiday weekend. That's nearly 2.1 million more travelers than last year's holiday and almost 1.8 million more than the previous high, set back in 2019.

"Independence Day weekend appears to be the continuation of what has already been a very strong summer travel season," said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. "Although airfares and hotel rates are more expensive than last year, Americans are still eager to travel. So, expect to see congested roads, busy hotels, and long lines at airports and attractions."

National Independence Day Travel Figures

Total

Auto

Air

Other

2023 (Forecast)

50.7 million

43.2 million

4.2 million

3.4 million

2022

48.7 million

42.2 million

3.7 million

2.7 million

2019

49 million

41.5 million

3.5 million

3.5 million

West North Central Region Independence Day Travel Volumes

Total

Auto

Air

Other

2023 (Forecast)

3,746,000

3,172,000

147,000

427,000

2022

3,606,000 (+3.88%)

3,125,000 (+1.5%)

134,000 (+9.7%)

347,000 (+23%)

2019

3,606,000 (+3.88%)

3,053,000 (+3.89%)

150,000 (-2%)

403,000 (+5.9%)

Road Trips Remain the Preferred Mode of Transportation

Nearly 85% of all travelers will take a road trip. AAA predicts 43.2 million Americans will drive to their destinations. That's a little over 1 million more people on the road than last year. Regionally, more than 3.1 million are forecast to take a holiday road trip. That's 47,000 more than last year.

Gas Prices to Remain Lower than Last Year's Holiday

While it's still too early to know exactly what drivers will pay at the pump this Independence Day, it's likely to be well below what drivers paid during last year's holiday period. The average over the 4th of July holiday (July 1 – 6, 2022) was $4.66 - $4.69 per gallon in Minnesota and $4.57 - $4.61 per gallon in Iowa. So far this summer, gas prices have been somewhat erratic, but the state average in Iowa, remained below $3.45 per gallon and for Minnesota prices have been lower than $3.50 per gallon, thanks to the lower cost of oil.

419,000 more Americans will board a flight

A record-setting 4.17 million Americans will fly to their destinations this Independence Day weekend. That surpasses the previous July 4th weekend air travel record of 3.91 million travelers, which was set in 2019. The share of air travelers in the overall holiday forecast this year is an impressive 8.2% - the highest percentage in nearly 20 years.

An estimated 147,000 are forecast to fly this year from the WNC. That's nearly 13,000 more than last year, but 3000 less than 2019.

Other modes of transportation are also on the rise this year. AAA expects 3.36 million people will travel by bus, cruise, or train over the long weekend, an increase of 24% over last year. This national figure is not expected to surpass 2019 levels. However, the projected 427,000 travelers is a new record in the region.

Best/Worst Times to Travel and Peak Congestion by Metro

Friday, June 30 is expected to be the busiest day on the roads during the Independence Day holiday weekend, according to INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights. The worst travel times vary by day but are generally in the afternoon and early evening.

Average travel times are estimated to be 30% longer than normal, particularly in major metro areas, near beaches and attractions. To avoid the heaviest congestion, INRIX recommends drivers leave in the morning or after 6 p.m.

Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car

Date

Worst Travel Time

Best Travel Time

Thu, June 29

4:00 - 6:00 PM

Before 12:00 PM

Fri, June 30

10:00 AM - 5:00 PM

Before 10:00 AM, After 6:00 PM

Sat, July 1

1:00 PM

Before 12:00 PM

Sun, July 2

Minimal Traffic Impact Expected

Mon, July 3

Minimal Traffic Impact Expected

Tue, July 4

12:00 - 3:00 PM

Before 11:00 AM, After 6:00 PM

Wed, July 5

3:00 - 6:00 PM

Before 2:00 PM

Peak Congestion by Metro

Metro

Route

Peak Congestion Period

Est. Travel Time

Compared to Typical

Atlanta

Savannah to Atlanta via

I-16 W

Tue, 6PM

6 hrs 18 mins

67%

Boston

Boston to Nantucket via Pilgrim Hwy S

Fri, 11AM

2 hrs 24 mins

63%

Chicago

Chicago to Indianapolis via I-65 S

Wed, 5PM

5 hrs 30 mins

33%

Washington DC

Rehoboth Beach to Washington via US-50 W

Tue, 5PM

4 hrs

82%

Denver

Fort Collins to Denver via

I-25 S

Fri, 1PM

2 hrs 24 mins

60%

Detroit

Cleveland to Detroit via

I-90 W

Fri, 10AM

4 hrs 36 mins

73%

Houston

Houston to Galveston via

I-45 S

Sat, 11AM

1 hr 18 mins

52%

Los Angeles

Los Angeles to Las Vegas via I-15 N

Sun, 6PM

6 hrs 12 mins

60%

Minneapolis

Minneapolis to Eau Claire via I-94 E

Wed, 6PM

2 hrs 36 mins

30%

New York

New York to Jersey Shore via GSP S

Fri, 5PM

2 hrs 48 mins

64%

Portland

Portland to Cannon Beach via US-26 W

Sat, 1PM

2 hrs 18 mins

35%

San Diego

Palm Springs to San Diego via I-15 S

Wed, 7AM

3 hrs 30 mins

17%

San Francisco

San Francisco to Sacramento via I-80 E

Fri, 12PM

2 hrs 18 mins

48%

Seattle

Seattle to Ellensburg via

I-90 E

Fri, 3PM

2 hrs 36 mins

43%

Tampa

Tampa to Orlando via I-4 E

Tue, 11AM

2 hrs 24 mins

69%

Summer Travel Trends and Tips

Travel demand has steadily increased since 2020, and this summer is poised to be one for the record books. Here are some trends and tips from AAA Travel.

  • Air travel is seeing the biggest spike in demand despite higher ticket prices. Passengers are paying 40% - 50% more for flights compared to last year, yet AAA data shows bookings remain strong. Many airlines are responding to surging demand by hiring more staff and taking smaller regional planes out of service and replacing them with larger ones to increase capacity. However, there are still challenges, including a shortage of air traffic controllers that has led to reduced service in and out of New York City area airports.
    • AAA Travel Tip: Apply for TSA Precheck to avoid long security lines at packed airports. You can enroll at participating AAA branches during TSA PreCheck® by IDEMIA pop-up events, which are posted HERE 45 days in advance.
  • Hotel prices are up slightly over 2022, but not by much. While the number of domestic hotel bookings is about the same as last year, AAA data shows international hotel bookings are up 80% compared to 2022. International travel demand is booming and so are passport applications. The U.S. State Department says it's processing half a million applications a week. Routine service is averaging 10-13 weeks.
    • AAA Travel Tip: Need a passport fast? RushMyPassport provides expedited services and discounts for AAA members. This past May, they handled more than 1,100 applications from AAA members, compared to just 73 applications in May of last year.
  • Car rental shortages seen during the pandemic have improved. Inventory has steadily increased since last year, with newer models and electric vehicles added to fleets. AAA data shows rental prices are down slightly from last year. Demand for international rental cars is up more than 80% compared to 2022.
    • AAA Travel Tip: Prepay for your rental car to be eligible for added savings and the confidence that the car of your choice will be waiting for you as planned. If you're planning to drive abroad, keep in mind some countries require International Driving Permits. AAA is one of only two private entities in the U.S. authorized by the State Department to issue IDPs. This year, AAA reports demand for IDPs is double what it was in 2022.
  • Cruising is back to pre-pandemic numbers, with sold-out ships and advance bookings. Prices are about the same as 2022, with certain cruises a bit higher this year due to demand. Alaska cruises are particularly popular this time of year. AAA booking data also shows Caribbean cruises and European river cruises are top vacations in 2023.
    • AAA Travel Tip: Protect your investment with travel insurance. AAA data shows demand for travel insurance is up more than 100% over last year, as more travelers now see the need to prepare for the unexpected.

Holiday Forecast Methodology

Travel Forecast

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence's proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET's TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, forecast U.S. travel behavior and position brands—all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 15, 2023.

* Independence Day Holiday Travel Period

For purposes of this forecast, the Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the five-day period from Friday, June 30 to Tuesday, July 4. When the Fourth of July falls on a Wednesday, it is considered to be a six-day holiday period, when it falls on any other day of the week the holiday period is a five-day window.

About AAA - The Auto Club Group

The Auto Club Group (ACG) is the second largest AAA club in North America with more than 13 million members across 14 U.S. states, the province of Quebec and two U.S. territories. ACG and its affiliates provide members with roadside assistance, insurance products, banking and financial services, travel offerings and more. ACG belongs to the national AAA federation with more than 62 million members in the United States and Canada. AAA's mission is to protect and advance freedom of mobility and improve traffic safety. For more information, get the AAA Mobile app, visit AAA.com, and follow us on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.

About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit?www.spglobal.com.

About DKSA

DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry's most complete database on U.S. resident travel both in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company.

About INRIX??

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it's keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.

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