AAA: Record Number of Holiday Travelers Expected to Close Out 2024

MINNEAPOLIS (Dec. 17, 2024) - Americans are expected to travel in record numbers for the year-end holiday period (from Saturday, Dec. 21 to Wednesday, Jan. 1), with more than 119 million setting out 50 miles from home, per AAA analysis. This narrowly surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by 64,000 travelers. “Minnesotans should expect the roads, airports, and public transportation to be busier than normal as people take special vacations, visit loved ones, and hit the road for holiday plans”, said Brynna Knapp, spokesperson for AAA.   

 Factors influencing this year’s travel forecast:

• Travel volume is being driven by consumer spending as inflation continues to moderate.
• Strong employment continues to drive rising wages and with inflation leveling off, consumers are expected to spend nearly 5% more than last year as incomes rise at a similar level.
• Economic growth continues to remain steady, with Q4 real GDP growth expected at 2.0% in Q4 compared to last year.

“Finalize your travel plans now and give yourself extra time to get to your destination. We also suggest travel insurance, which provides assistance in the event winter weather or something unexpected interferes with your plans”, said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group.

Year-End Travelers by Mode

By Car:  AAA expects 2.5 million more people on the roads this year. Nationwide, an estimated 107 million will take a road trip of 50 miles or more. That’s just shy of the record of 108 million road travelers – set in 2019. Nearly 90% of holiday travelers will drive to their destinations, making it the most popular way to travel.

“Many travelers, particularly families with young children, prefer the flexibility and lower cost that road trips provide,” said Brynna Knapp, spokesperson for AAA. “Gas demand in December goes down as the weather gets colder, more people work remotely, and holiday shoppers purchase their gifts online versus in person.”

Gas prices are expected to be competitive with last year’s levels. Last year at this time, Minnesota gas prices averaged $2.88 per gallon and Minnesotans have continued to enjoy prices at a lower level throughout this year. Currently, Minnesota drivers are paying around $2.87 per gallon. To view updated national, state, and metro area gas price averages, visit GasPrices.AAA.com.

AAA car rental partner Hertz says Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, Phoenix, and Tampa are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the holidays. The busiest car pick-up days are expected to be Friday, Dec. 20 and Saturday, Dec. 21. The busiest time for rental returns is expected to be the weekend and Monday after Christmas. The average length of rental is one week.

By Air: Nationally, AAA expects air travel to set a new record this holiday season. Nearly 7.9 million Americans are forecast to take at least one domestic flight. That number surpasses the previous record of 7.5 million air travelers last year. AAA booking data shows flights are 4% more expensive this holiday season compared to last year. The average domestic ticket is $830. International flights are 13% more expensive, averaging $1,630 a ticket.

By Other Modes: The number of Americans traveling by bus, train, and cruise this holiday season is up nearly 10% compared to last year. AAA expects 4.47 million people will travel by other modes. That number is the highest it’s been in 20 years. Cruise bookings out of domestic ports are up 37% compared to last holiday season. Cruising is popular this time of year as many families enjoy celebrating the holidays aboard a ship full of activities and food.

AAA’s Road Trip Safety Tips

With an additional 2.5 million travelers expected on the roads, AAA urges drivers to prioritize safety with the following tips:

Follow Posted Speed Limits: While it’s tempting to speed to save time, the facts don’t support it. Even minor increases in speed can make crashes deadly.

·        Driving 80 mph instead of 75 mph over 100 miles saves only 5 minutes, hardly worth the risk.

·        Speeding may feel faster but often leads to tragedy.

Drive Only When Alert and Refreshed: Driving on 4-5 hours of sleep is as dangerous as driving with a 0.08 BAC (legal intoxication). Less than 4 hours of sleep? The risk doubles.

·        Travel during hours you’re normally awake and avoid overnight drives.

·        Steer clear of heavy meals, drowsy medications, and alcohol.

·        For long trips, take breaks every 2 hours or 100 miles. Use these breaks to switch drivers if possible, or park at a safe location and nap for 20-30 minutes to recharge.

Slow Down, Move Over: A roadside worker is killed every other week in the U.S. To help prevent these tragedies, AAA asks drivers to Slow Down, Move Over.

·        All 50 states, including Minnesota, have “Move Over” laws to protect first responders and law enforcement officers. In 2023, Minnesota strengthened its Move Over laws to include all vehicles with hazards flashing at the roadside.

·        When you see an emergency responder on the side of the road assisting a stranded driver, reduce your speed.

·        If possible, change lanes to give those crews room to do their jobs safely

 Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects drivers will experience the worst traffic delays the weekends before Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. The holidays themselves are expected to have minimal congestion.

“With a record number of auto travelers expected this holiday season, drivers in Minnesota should expect to see additional traffic and plan ahead. Main freeways like I-94 will see a 46% increase in travel time on Dec. 29 as folks head home after their festivities. Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours during the week. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the evening commute”, said Knapp.   

Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located.

For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

 AAA’s Top Holiday Destinations

The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data from Dec. 21, 2024 to Jan. 1, 2025. Tropical weather destinations top the list as many people head to beach resorts and on cruises to end the year. The charming Southern cities of Charleston and New Orleans are also on the top 10 domestic list. In addition to Caribbean destinations, Bahrain finds itself in the top 10 international list thanks to its popular cruise port, pleasant weather, and rich history.

Holiday Forecast Methodology  

Travel Forecast 

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. 

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM. The PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of November 4, 2024.

Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

Year-End Holiday Travel Period

For this forecast, the year-end holiday travel period is defined as the twelve-day period from Saturday, December 21 to Wednesday, January 1. AAA’s year-end holiday travel period can range from 10 to 13 days, depending on which day of the week Christmas and New Year’s Day fall. This year's holiday travel period is two days longer than last year. While a longer holiday travel period can offer more options for departures and return trips, all the year-end holiday periods contain two weekends.

About S&P Global 
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com. 

About DKSA 

DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database on U.S. resident travel both in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually, and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company. 

About INRIX   

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.