AAA: Thanksgiving Travel Records Smashed

FARGO, N.D. (Nov. 19, 2024) – 2024 has been the "year of travel" for North Dakotans, and Thanksgiving looks to keep it rolling: AAA projects 79.9 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period. That surpasses last year's record by 1.7 million people, or 2%, and marks a 2-million-person increase over 2019.

The storyline, here, is fundamentally economic: Robust wage growth has boosted personal income, while inflation - especially on common travel products - has stabilized and even declined. All told, consumer spending is up nearly 5% from this time last year - while North Dakota gas prices have fallen $0.30 over the same period.

"Gratitude has always been the watchword for Thanksgiving get-togethers, and Americans have apparently decided they've got a lot to be grateful for this year," said Skyler McKinley, regional director of public affairs for AAA. “Remember, travel is an economic choice. While post-pandemic pessimism about the economy lingers, it hasn't borne out in travel trendlines - which is good news for the American hospitality industry, even as travelers can expect choked-up roadways and long lines at airports.”

In effort to better capture the flow of holiday travelers, AAA expanded the number of days in the Thanksgiving holiday travel period. Instead of Wednesday-Sunday, this year’s Thanksgiving holiday travel period is seven days, stretching from Tuesday, Nov. 26 to Monday, Dec. 2. Additionally, we expanded our historical travel numbers to provide an apples-to-apples comparison.

Thanksgiving Travelers by Mode
 

Automobile travel will set new records nationwide - with 71.7 million people traveling by car over Thanksgiving, up 1.3 million drivers over last year. 

Gas prices are trending down compared to 2023. The national average last Thanksgiving Day was $3.26. Falling oil prices this autumn may help push the national average below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021, and that could happen before drivers hit the road for Thanksgiving. 

In North Dakota, drivers are paying an average price of $2.93 - with prices at their highest in Bismarck ($3.04) and lowest in Grand Forks ($2.74).

AAA car rental partner Hertz says Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix show the highest rental demand for the Thanksgiving holiday. The busiest car pick-up day is expected to be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the busiest rental return days will be the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday.

Thanksgiving air travel is also expected to set a new record. Nationally, AAA projects 5.84 million people will fly domestically this holiday. That’s an increase of 2% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019. 

Domestic airfares are up 3% this year, according to AAA booking data, while the number of bookings are similar to last year. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%.

Other modes of transportation increased 9% from last year. Nationally, nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by various transportation methods including buses, cruises, and trains. That represents an 18% jump over 2019, in large part due to the popularity of cruising. 

Best/Worst Times to Drive

According to INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights:

• The worst times to travel by car over Thanksgiving are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
• The best time to hit the road is Thanksgiving Day itself when interstates and highways are typically clear.
• Drivers returning home on Sunday should leave early in the morning, and those coming back on Monday should expect a mix of travelers and work commuters on the road.

"When you're stuck in traffic, remember you can't be mad at traffic: You are traffic," McKinley said. “Take a beat, take a deep breath, and take in the local color. You're going to get to where you need to be, though you should build in extra time if you have appointments to keep.”

AAA's Top Thanksgiving Destinations
 

Americans are flocking to warmer environs this Thanksgiving. Four Florida cities make the list by way of their beaches, theme parks, and cruise ports. Other top spots include New York, California, Hawaii, and Las Vegas. Internationally, Europe and the Caribbean dominate the list thanks to their beach resorts, tourist attractions, and river cruises.

AAA’s Road Trip Tips

• Get a full vehicle inspection before setting out on your trip. Find a mechanic you can trust at AAA.com/AutoRepair. 
• Leave early and allow extra time to get to your destination. Who wants to be in a rush?
• Identify alternate routes in case you encounter congestion or road closures.
• Avoid distractions while driving. Program your GPS before your drive.
• Ensure everyone in the vehicle wears their seatbelt.
• Never drive impaired.

AAA’s Air Travel Tips

• Check-in early online.
• Monitor your flight status using your air carrier’s mobile app.
• Arrive 2-3 hours before scheduled departure.
• Pack medications and an extra set of clothes in your carry-on bag, just in case your flight is delayed or cancelled. Avoid checking a bag altogether if you're worried about lost luggage headaches. 

Tips for Air Travelers who Have Not Booked their Flight Yet:

• Book a flight that leaves early in the day. Flights in the afternoon and evening are more susceptible to delays and cancellations.
• Book a direct flight. Otherwise, build in extra time between connections, in case your first flight is delayed.
• Consider traveling on Thanksgiving Day. This could offer the best combination of availability and price.

“It’s not too late to purchase travel insurance, especially if you've spent considerably on your vacation plans,” McKinley said. “There are policies that can provide compensation for flight delays for as little as three hours. And if a flight is cancelled, passengers can receive compensation for covered out-of-pocket expenses.”

AAA Reminds Drivers to ‘Move Over for Me’

With more people sharing the roads, the danger is multiplied for those on the roadside. AAA reminds motorists to slow down and move over for first responders, tow trucks, and any motorist with a disabled vehicle on the side of the road.

“We want to make sure all holiday travelers, tow truck drivers and first responders make it home safely this Thanksgiving,” McKinley said. “Do the right thing: Move over for any flashing lights you see at the roadside, from tow trucks to law enforcement to North Dakotans in need. That small gesture could save a life, and it's North Dakota law, to boot."

Holiday Forecast Methodology

Travel Forecast 

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. 

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM. The PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 7, 2024.

Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.