Forecast: Record-breaking July 4 Travel

FARGO, N.D. (Jun 26, 2024) - AAA projects this Independence Day will be one for the record books, with more than 70.9 million people expected to travel 50 miles or more away from home - in a sure sign the U.S. travel economy has finally and fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. This year's projections outpace 2023 by 5% and 2019 by 8%.

"2024 is the year of travel, surpassing 2019's numbers and some records that are nearly two decades old," said Skyler McKinley, regional director of public affairs for AAA - The Auto Club Group. "The good news is that robust travel figures speak to the strength of the American economy. The bad news is that, with 3.5 million more travelers than last year, there will be more people on roadways, lined up at airport security, and visiting state parks, lakes, major American cities, and more. Always remember: You can't be mad at traffic, you are traffic."

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period
AAA's Independence Day holiday forecast measures domestic trips of 50 miles or more during a 9-day period from Saturday, June 29 to Sunday, July 7. 

Economic Trends Influencing the Travel Forecast
Despite persistent concerns about inflation, total travel is increasing as a function of growth in consumer confidence, wages, and continued strength in consumer spending. 

• Consumers are expected to increase spending by 5.5% compared to a year ago.
• Real GDP growth has remained modest - with a slight uptick of around 2.5% from last year, reflecting a slow but steady economic movement.
• After falling steadily since January, consumer confidence moved up in May. 
• At a national level, gas prices for May averaged $3.62, $0.07 higher than a year ago. 

Auto Travel & North Dakota Gas Prices
AAA projects a record 60.6 million people will travel by car over Independence Day week – that’s an additional 2.8 million travelers compared to last year. This year’s number also surpasses 2019, when 55.3 million people traveled by car for July 4.

Per AAA rental car partner Hertz, Dallas, Denver, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are the cities with the highest rental demand during the holiday week. The busiest pick-up days are projected to be Friday, June 28, Saturday, June 29, and Wednesday, July 3.

During last year's holiday weekend, North Dakota gas prices averaged $3.48 per gallon. Today, the state average is $3.30, roughly 20 cents below the national average. Pump prices in North Dakota have been marked by stability, gaining three cents on the week ahead of the holiday and sitting two cents lower than this time last month. 

Still, relative stasis in the oil markets is easily threatened by geopolitical tensions or hurricanes that threaten oil rigs and refineries along the Gulf of Mexico, sending prices upward.

Air Travel
The number of domestic air travelers is also expected to set a record. Nationally, AAA projects 5.74 million people will fly to their July 4th destinations. That’s an increase of nearly 7% compared to last year and a 12% increase over 2019.

AAA booking data show domestic airfare is 2% cheaper this Independence Day week compared to last year, and the average price for a domestic roundtrip ticket is $800. Airports will be packed throughout the week. AAA recommends arriving 2 hours early, reserving parking ahead of time, and traveling with carry-on luggage versus checked bags to save time and money.

Other Modes of Transportation
More than 4.6 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. That represents an increase of 9% compared to last year, but shy of 2019’s figure of 4.79 million.

Cruising continues its remarkable post-pandemic comeback. This time of year, Alaska cruises are in high demand, making Seattle and Anchorage top domestic destinations. Cruise travelers are also finding deals this summer. With new ships coming onto the market – and going for a premium – some cruise lines have been offering targeted discounts to fill older inventory for remaining cabins. To save money, AAA recommends working with a trusted travel adviser - who has access to hidden deals that never make it online. 

Top Destinations

This July 4th week, travelers are cooling off in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska – and by the ocean! Seattle, Vancouver, and Anchorage are top destinations because of the popularity of Alaska cruises this time of year. Beaches in South Florida, Honolulu, Punta Cana, and Barcelona are in high demand. Historical sites in European cities like London, Rome, Dublin, Paris, and Athens are also popular. 

Congestion
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the worst times to travel by car before and on July 4 are between 2pm and 7pm. Drivers should hit the road in the morning, and travelers returning on Monday, July 8 should avoid rush hour traffic in the morning and afternoon.

“Drivers in large metro areas can expect the worst traffic delays on Wednesday, July 3rd, as they leave town, and Sunday, July 7th, as they return,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Road trips over the holiday week could take up to 67% longer than normal. Travelers should monitor 511 services, local news stations, and traffic apps for up-to-the-minute road conditions.”

Holiday Forecast Methodology
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 27, 2024.

Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors. 

For this forecast, the Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 29 to Sunday, July 7. Historically, the Independence Day holiday period included only one weekend. This is the first year the Independence Day holiday travel period is a longer timeframe with two weekends included.